The Kentucky Derby is one of the hardest horse races to handicap, large fields, misleading form lines, and
fast improving young horses are all contributing factors that must be considered.
We'll take a look at some solid angles that will help reduce the field to serious contenders only.
Kentucky Derby Betting Angles
*A horse must have a 1st or 2nd place finish in a Grade 1 or Grade
2 Stakes race in its career, any horse that doesn't have these credentials should be thrown out of your selections.
*Pay special attention to a horse that has been ridden by the same
jockey in all of its career starts, or all of its starts on the year, or all of its starts on the dirt, this indicates a strong
jockey/horse relationship, with the jockey knowing the horse would be their Derby mount they will have conserved it for the
*Look for Jockey/Trainer combos that win at least 20%
of the time and return a positive ROI, ex, Big Brown(2008) J/T 2007-08(11 .55 $6.24), Street Sense(2007) J/T 2006-07 (24 .21
These stats have recently been added to the racing form and are located on the bottom right side of the
racing form for each horse, in Big Brown's example, Desormeaux/Dutrow, 11 starters, won 55% of the time, returned $6.24
on a $2 investment, that means that if this pattern continues you would get a return of $6.24 for ever $2 bet each time you
bet on Desormeaux/Dutrow.
*Betting favorite in race prior to the Derby, when a horse is good
the word spreads around the track fast.
*A Beyer speed figure of 98+ on the year, Giacomo(2005) was the
only horse since Sea Hero(1993) to win the Derby without running a Beyer of 100+ prior to the Derby, he ran a 98 3 starts
prior to the Derby.
*A good race at a distance of 1 1/8 miles prior to the Derby is
important, a win or within 2 lengths of winning, only Charismatic(1999) came out of a 1 1/16 miles prior to winning the Derby.
*Look for a horse that improved their position throughout the race
in their last start prior to the Derby, throw out horses that were being passed by other in their final prep, this indicates
they were having trouble going long and won't perform well in the Derby.
*Bullet Works, the
winner of the Kentucky Derby is usually the fastest horse on the track in morning workouts, use workouts after their last
race, at least one workout of over 5 furlongs is required prior to the Derby.
*In the case of a tie, or if you are stuck between horses, always
bet the one at higher odds.
*The last 9 Derby's(2000-2008) have been won by horses born in February